By Nayeli Jaramillo-Plata, CNN

(CNN) — Flight delays and the recent government shutdown are pushing more travelers onto US highways this Thanksgiving, raising the risk of wrecks on what is already one of the most dangerous travel periods of the year, data shows.

The crash rate on the Sunday after Thanksgiving is 65% higher compared with the previous Sunday, based on 2024 data analyzed by Samsara, a technology company that tracks commercial fleet safety.

Kelly Soderlund, head of insights at Samsara told CNN, this year could be even more dangerous because of the surge in drivers.

The American Automobile Association projects nearly 82 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the holiday period, which runs from Tuesday, November 25, through Monday, December 1.

That is an increase of about 1.6 million from last year. The association said the number could rise further if travelers switch from flying to driving after recent flight cancellations.

“A lot of people needed to make their plans during a time when the government was shut down and air travel was having a rough go,” Soderlund said. “We knew there was going to be more people on the road.”

Why the Sunday after Thanksgiving is especially risky

In its study “America’s Most Dangerous Winter Roads,” released Tuesday, Samsara analyzed data from 2022 through 2025. The results show a consistent pattern: crash risk rises in winter regardless of fleet size or industry.

Thanksgiving itself is usually safer, Soderlund said, because many people are off the road visiting family. The higher crash risk comes during transitional travel periods, especially the Sunday after the holiday. This year it falls on November 30.

Samsara found the spike is driven by heavy congestion, long-distance travel and driver fatigue. Millions of Americans are returning home, creating one of the busiest travel windows of the year.

“It’s not only regular consumers heading back on the road but also delivery drivers and commercial trucks,” Soderlund said. During Thanksgiving week, many shippers scale back operations, reducing the number of trucks on the road. But the Sunday after, fleets ramp up again, coinciding with the busiest travel day of the year.

Winter conditions also increase risk. Early winter weather, including rain and snow, is already appearing in several regions. “If it’s not winter yet, you may be getting rain or early snow, which can make roads slick and reduce visibility,” Soderlund said.

Certain roads and regions carry higher risks, including I-80 across the country, the New Jersey Turnpike and northern states such as North Dakota, Minnesota, Wyoming and Iowa, where snow and icy conditions can appear early.

Tips for staying safe

Drivers can reduce risk by leaving earlier in the day, avoiding night travel and keeping extra space around large trucks.

About half of all winter crashes occur between midnight and 4 a.m., when visibility drops and fatigue peaks, Soderlund said. Afternoon and evening travel can also be dangerous because of congestion and delivery traffic.

“Be aware of blind spots,” Soderlund said. “Don’t assume commercial vehicles can see you and give them plenty of room. It’s better to be safe than sorry.”

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